Russia's gas extortion of Europe has begun: the "beast from the east" has disintegrated
As a result, gas prices have skyrocketed to more than $ 950 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas yesterday. All indications are that the situation from 2018 will be repeated in 2021, when in March Europe was suddenly engulfed by the cold front “Beast from the East” and gas prices began to exceed $ 1,000 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas. The only difference is that the “beast from the east” was a natural phenomenon in 2018, and in 2021 it is literally a threat to the EU.
The fact is that the current gas crisis in Europe was created artificially and was caused by Russia, against which Ukraine has been warning its European partners for several years in a row.
Thus, Russia is currently pumping gas through its main gas pipelines, completely neglecting the capacity of the Ukrainian GTS. As I have repeatedly pointed out in my extensive materials, Russia cannot supply Europe with up to 200 billion cubic meters of gas a year beyond the Ukrainian gas network. It will be all the more unable to do so when its pipelines are subject to the EU's energy directive, which limits pumping by 50%.
What do we have now? It is only a month until the new heating season, unfilled underground gas storage facilities are being announced in Europe, and Russia is calmly supplying gas through its pipelines, maintaining transit through the Ukrainian GTS within 109 million cubic meters of gas per day, which means an annual equivalent. a total of just over 40 billion cubic meters. However, in the current situation, while maintaining this level of transit through the Ukrainian GTS, Russia will not be able to fill the EU UGSF before the start of the heating season and even less after its start.
To get out of this situation, Russia needs to significantly increase its transit through Ukraine, but it is not doing so, even though it simply does not have the resources to do so.
Russia is blackmailing the European Union in such a way that:
- to achieve the repeal of the EU Energy Directives for Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2;
- artificially raise gas prices to make a great profit in 2021.
A special point is the deliberate demonstration of Moscow's lack of interest in the Ukrainian GTS, even though Russia is creating the current crisis without the additional capacity of our transit system.
Europe has become dependent on the Russian gas needle as a result of Germany’s desperate lobbying, and Moscow has shamelessly decided this year to show the entire community how it can use that leverage. Would anyone then dare to claim that gas pipelines like Nord Stream 2 are an economic project?
In the current situation, Russia could be liable for its supplier's failure to fulfill its obligations to the customer and for terminating contracts and supplies. However, the problem is that civilized Europe is in the cage of a wild beast, which can cause an even greater energy crisis on the eve of a colder winter. On the fertile ground of such destabilization, any scenario of undermining the socio-economic situation, both in one country and in several EU countries at the same time, can be realized, with Russia having considerable experience.
This is a promising European gas route.
Source: Information resilience https://sprotyv.info/analitica/gazovyj-shantazh-rossiej-evropy-nachalsya-zver-s-vostoka-ljutuet
*** Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) ***
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